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Hurricane Harvey flooding causes Earth's crust under Texas to sink

People make their way out of a flooded neighborhood after it was inundated with rain water following Hurricane Harvey

The volume of water dispensed on US soil by Hurricane Harvey was so vast it caused the Earth’s crust to give way and sink under the weight.

Around 33 trillion gallons of water was left behind by the hurricane — four times the amount left by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

The flooding added around 275 trillion pounds of weight to the landmass of the southern US region, according to calculations by https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/09/hurricane-harvey-deformed-the-earths-crust-around-houston/538866/" data-vars-event-id="c6">The Atlantic.

Chris Milliner, a geoscientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, says this caused the Earth’s crust to warp and sink by two centimetres.

He tweeted a map of Houston, Texas, the worst affected area hit by flooding, which shows the phenomenon.

GPS data collected from stations around the city detected the area had been depressed under the weight of the extreme floods caused by Harvey.

The phenomenon, he said, is the result of sitting water caused by flooding rather than rain.

Although it is possible some of the subsidence around Houston is the result of soil compacting, some of the measurements were taken from stations situated on bedrock, which shows the Earth’s crust did give way.

In addition, it is possible the Earth’s crust around Houston will gradually spring back to its original position over time, but this is not certain.

 

Disaster Preparedness: How ready are the banks?

THE PHILIPPINES is among the most vulnerable to the impact of natural disasters and climate change. Last year saw 24 tropical depressions, 20 tropical storms, 16 typhoons, one super typhoon, and at least 13 earthquake episodes.

The cost of these damages goes beyond asset losses: a 2017 World Bank report titled “Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters,” noted that an estimated one million Filipinos were “plunged into poverty” after Super typhoon Yolanda caused $12.9 billion worth of damage. During the launch of that report, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia said that the cumulative impact of natural disasters cost the Philippines an estimated 0.5%-0.6% of economic output annually, which may reduce economic growth by as much as 0.3-0.4 percentage points.

 

While natural disasters are commonly associated with the agriculture sector, banks are not spared from the wrath of nature. In an email to BusinessWorld, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said that major natural disasters could materially impact banks and other financial institutions’ operations and profitability, especially in terms of provision of credit, loan collection, liquidity constraints, and other disruptions to critical financial services.

“In our analysis using ‘The Big One’ (i.e., a hypothetical earthquake) scenario, financial consumers will most likely need access to their savings accounts, hence, we have worked with the industry on how they can ensure provision of said services to their clients,” the BSP said.

“On the other hand, the banks may themselves be in need of additional liquidity to service these withdrawals, of which the BSP’s business continuity plan (BCP) might need to be activated to provide standby liquidity support for banks.”

The BSP said that to ensure sound BCPs, they must be tested on a regular basis. Nevertheless, the central bank has said that banks have been prepared in dealing with potential disruptions from natural disasters based on their periodic onsite examinations and offsite supervisory activities.

“[A]s early as 2000, the BSP rules and regulations on business continuity were already in place mandating banks and other financial institutions to put in place adequate measures, such as redundant facilities, alternate data centers and other arrangements to ensure continued provision of mission-critical financial services,” it said.

The central bank added that it has updated such regulations in line with recent developments in global standards and best practices through BSP Circular No. 951 dated March 20, 2017, which provided more comprehensive guidelines on business continuity management. Under these measures, banks were given up to four hours as the maximum response time to resume operations when disaster strikes.

“BSFIs (BSP-Supervised Financial Institutions) need to identify mission-critical services that should continuously be available for their financial consumers. All processes, systems and resources associated with such services will now have to be protected to ensure continuity in the event of disasters,” the central bank said, adding that BSFIs would also have to consider the impact to the business as well as the degree of risks to be able to come up with sound arrangements with the necessary resources and infrastructure in place.

BSP added that non-compliance will be subject to BSP supervisory enforcement actions ranging from penalties, directives and other non-monetary sanctions depending on the degree of non-compliance.

Apart from executing its regulatory functions, the central bank also has relief measures in place: “The BSP extends assistance to affected BSFIs through regulatory relief such as waiver of interests on loans, moratorium on penalties and other sanctions relative to regulatory reporting and other concessions,” it said.

“Moreover, standby liquidity and credit facilities of the BSP are readily available to assist affected BSFIs.”

HOW BANKS PREPARE FOR THEIR BCPS
For Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) Chief Risk Office Marita Socorro D. Gayares, the Bank has been diligent in preparing for disruptions from natural disasters and that its BCPs are in place: “[W]e normally perform test exercises and tweak as necessary. We have studied the guidelines, identified the requirements that are not yet in place, and implemented changes to fully comply with the guidelines,” she said.

Ms. Gayares said that BPI’s BCP consists of “procedures on the response, recovery, resumption and restoration of critical processes within the set time objective…”

“[The] BCP is said to be effective if, during the testing or an actual BCP activation, immediate recovery and resumption of critical business processes was achieved, e.g. within the defined time frame,” the BPI official said.

The BCP activation, Ms. Gayares said, is cascaded from its main office down to the operating units including the branches. “Recovery procedures and BCP status are reported regularly to ensure that proper implementation was done,” she said.

For government-owned Development Bank of the Philippines (DBP), an approval process has been developed to make sure that their BCP can be implemented from the Head Office to the different branches.

“For events with bank wide impact, the Head Office Crisis Management Team (CMT) decides on the implementation of the BCP. For events with regional impact, the CMT in the region makes the decision, and if only a certain department or branch is affected, the head of that department or branch implements the BCP. However, authorized officers in the Head Office should still be informed if the BCP is implemented in the region, department, or branch level,” DBP explained.

DBP said that above all else, the employees’ safety is crucial in implementing its BCPs effectively.

“In disaster preparedness, while physical security (of premises) is a major concern, the safety of personnel is the Bank’s ultimate priority in any scenario, followed by the recovery of critical services,” DBP said.

BPI’s Ms. Gayares shared the same view on its personnel’s’ safety: “[E]mergency response plans are in place and these are regularly tested to ensure our employees are ready to respond. We have also identified evacuation areas for our employees across regions,” she said.

“As a financial service provider, we need to make sure that the basic banking services can be restored immediately, while ensuring the safety and security of our employees,” she added.

For its part, BDO Unibank, Inc. (BDO) President and Chief Executive Officer Nestor V. Tan mentioned that the best preparation for disasters are equipping its employees and fool-proofing its BCPs.

“A BCP is effective if all employees are aware of their respective roles and responsibilities and are able to perform these during an actual business disruption. Preparation is key by regularly testing and updating the BCP based on the results of each test, given that a BCP should reflect the current capabilities and resources of the organization,” Mr. Tan said.

BDO has appropriate BCPs in place in each branch and a centralized BCP coordinating team to make sure its BCPs are properly implemented and supervised.

“The bank (i.e, each unit of the bank) and its branches have their respective BCP which outlines the procedures to be followed per disruption scenario…As well, there is a BCP Central Coordinating Team that oversees and ensures that the BCP is properly implemented from the time disaster strikes up to recovery,” Mr. Tan said.

FAST BUSINESS RECOVERY
Aside from preparedness, banks also have in place steps to hasten recovery in their operations following a natural disaster.

“To mitigate the impact of natural disasters on the operations of BDO branches and ensure continued bank operations and customer access to BDO products and services, the bank has assigned a buddy branch for each branch nationwide. This allows BDO employees of the affected branch to temporarily report to the buddy branch to service the transactions of clients of their branch affected by the natural disasters,” said BDO’s Mr. Tan.

In cases of prolonged occurrence of a calamity, “the bank implements this BCP from the time of the disaster until full recovery,” he said.

For DBP, it is important to establish a clear communications plan with its personnel and customers.

“Customers are made aware if products and services are already available despite the onset of a natural calamity. Likewise, alternatives are utilized lacking the availability of required resources. Personnel are trained to handle or undertake contingency measures in order to that business operations may be resumed soonest,” it said.

“In cases of a prolonged occurrence of the after-effects of a calamity, advisories and information regarding the status of the Bank’s services shall be immediately disseminated to clients, including updates if necessary.”

For BPI, Ms. Gayares said that the Bank has redundancies and backup facilities for the critical components of their operations, including business recovery sites located in strategic locations.

“[W]e also have cross-functional teams identified to manage potential disruptive events, emergency situations, or disasters. This ensures that our clients can go to any BPI branch to fulfill their transactions and other banking needs,” Ms. Gayares said.

LEARNING FROM EXPERIENCE
Years of being exposed to different natural calamities, banks learned to improve its BCPs as well as their customer information management.

For one, DBP is requiring all of its business units to prepare, review, and update their BCPs to include the results of their tests and exercises as well as lessons learned from previous experiences in dealing with actual disasters. It has also created a “centralized management information system” in order to provide easy access to client information from one source.

In the case of BPI, it has reinforced its bank-wide “First Aid and Basic Life Support Training” for their personnel. “We have also strengthened the partnership with the Philippine Disaster Resilience Foundation, which coordinates local support from the government and other response agencies,” BPI’s Ms. Gayares said.

Meanwhile, BDO’s Mr. Tan said that they review and update their BCPs “based on whether or not the recovery objectives are met.”

“The bank back-tests its BCP[s based on] an actual disruption…and continually improves its BCP[s through] enterprise test scenarios and awareness programs based on the severity and impact of an actual disaster,” he said. — Lourdes O. Pilar

Rural people need to plan for disaster

Rural people need to plan for and learn about disaster survival and the array of disaster types they may have to deal with, writes Federated Farmers Hawke's Bay provincial president Jim Galloway.

What the future holds for us is largely unknown but if history has taught us anything it is that it is safe to plan for disaster.

The Hawke's Bay is no stranger to adverse events. Our history is marked by earthquakes, floods and fires so we need to think about disaster planning.

Recently I attended a workshop on the Hikurangi Subduction zone to learn about how our region would be impacted by a major earthquake (magnitude 8.9, the last one of which was about 500 years ago).

The major takeaway was the isolation we as a region, particularly rural people, are more than likely going to find ourselves flung into.

If a major shake happened here we would be flattened and alone.

Survivors in the Bay area would have to be able to look after themselves for a lot longer than probably anyone would expect after the predicted shakes, fires and five meter tsunami.

We probably wouldn't be able to easily communicate as fibre cables that feed into cellphone towers would be shot and massive slips would block most roads.

The Government would focus its initial responses where the biggest human populations are, and that's Auckland and Wellington followed by other urban centres.

What we know now is that if disaster strikes we are on our own for at least three days with little or no communications or electricity, but that's still a best case scenario.

What the recent Nelson fire has shown us is that no one has planned for a 10 day-plus active fire event. But this is now a reality for some.

We need people to start planning for and learning about disaster survival and the array of disaster types they may have to deal with.

Also practise and ensure everyone in your family knows the plans.

The community will need better resourcing in terms of funding community resilience, coordinated efforts between central and local government and community groups.

That planning should be under way now, with all regions having common systems so anyone from anywhere can immediately step in and not have to spend valuable time getting up to speed.

Global warming should be called global heating, says key scientist

The heatwave that hit the UK this summer was made 30 times more likely by human-caused climate change, according to the Met Office.

“Global heating” is a more accurate term than “global warming” to describe the changes taking place to the world’s climate, according to a key scientist at the UK Met Office.

Prof Richard Betts, who leads the climate research arm of Britain’s meteorological monitoring organisation, made the comments amid growing evidence that rising temperatures have passed the comfort zone and are now bringing increased threats to humanity.

“Global heating is technically more correct because we are talking about changes in the energy balance of the planet,” the scientist said at the UN climate summit in Katowice, Poland. “We should be talking about risk rather than uncertainty.”

Earlier this month, the Met Office produced a new report that showed the searing heatwave that hit the UK this summer – along with other parts of the northern hemisphere – was made 30 times more likely by human-caused climate change.

Betts said the shifting climate was pushing some natural processes – such as the blossoming of trees and laying of eggs – out of sync. “That’s already happening. We are also seeing higher temperatures of heatwaves. The kind of thing we saw this year will happen more often.

“The risks are compounding all the time. It stands to reason that the sooner we can take action, the quicker we can rein them in.”

His views were echoed by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, a professor of theoretical physics and founder of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. He said his recent Hothouse Earth report , which was one of the most widely quoted and downloaded studies of this year, had helped to change the language used to describe the climate crisis.

“Global warming doesn’t capture the scale of destruction. Speaking of hothouse Earth is legitimate,” he said.

The scientists expressed frustration at the slow pace of action by political leaders. In signing the 2015 Paris agreement, governments around the world aimed to keep global warming to within 1.5C to 2C above pre-industrial levels. But current commitments are far off track.

The Met Office upgraded its forecasts this week to show the planet is on track to warm by between 2.5C and 4.5C. “We have broadened out the range of possibilities,” said Betts, who is conducting a risk assessment based on the new projections. In the UK, he said the trend was towards wetter winters with more floods, hotter summers with more droughts interspersed with increasingly intense rain.

The Paris pact was a firewall, he said. “It’s not helping us to keep the world as it is now. We’ve lost this opportunity already. It’s a firewall against climate chaos.”

Johan Rockström, executive director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, said “cracks” were starting to appear in the climate system that were pushing nature from being a friend that absorbs carbon dioxide to an enemy that releases carbon dioxide. These concerns are fuelled by the growing intensity of forest fires, the effect of melting ice-sheets on the jet stream, and the rising risk of permafrost thaw, which would release trapped methane.

Although he stressed it might not yet have passed a tipping point, he said the warnings were getting louder. “This shift from friend to foe is no doubt a scientific nightmare. That is the biggest worry that we have,” he said. “It does terrify me. The only reason we sit here without being completely depressed is that we see we have policy measures and technology to move in the right direction.

“We need to have a diagnosis just like a patient who comes to a doctor and gets a really bad diagnosis. But if the science is right, the technology is right, and the policy is right you can cure that very dire situation. There is no scientific suggestion that the door is shut.”

This week’s climate talks have crept forward with only small progress towards a new global rulebook, but emissions continue to rise and the planet continues to heat.

“Things are obviously proceeding very slowly,” said Betts. “As a scientist, it’s frustrating to see we’re still at the point when temperatures are going up and emissions are going up. I’ve been in this for 25 years. I hoped we’d be beyond here by now.”

Schellnhuber concurred. “I’ve worked on this for 30 years and I’ve never been as worried as I am today.”

Global warming increases the risk of an extinction domino effect

The complex network of interdependencies between plants and animals multiplies the species at risk of extinction due to environmental change, according to a JRC study.

In the case of global warming, predictions that fail to take into account this cascading effect might underestimate extinctions by up to 10 times.

As an obvious, direct consequence of climate change, plants and animals living in a given area are driven to extinction when the local environmental conditions become incompatible with their tolerance limits, just like fish in an aquarium with a broken thermostat.

However, there are many elusive drivers of species loss that go beyond the direct effects of environmental change (and human activity) which we still struggle to understand.

In particular, it is becoming clearer that co-extinctions (the disappearance of consumers following the depletion of their resources) could be a major culprit in the ongoing biodiversity crisis.

While the concept of co-extinction is supported by a sound and robust theoretical background, it is often overlooked in empirical research because it's extremely difficult to assess.

New JRC Study on Co-Extinctions

A new study led by the JRC took on this challenge in order to determine the importance of co-extinctions in conditions of environmental change.

JRC scientist Giovanni Strona, in collaboration with Professor Corey Bradshaw from Flinders University in Adelaide, Australia, constructed 2000 "Virtual Earths", which they populated with thousands of plants and animals organized into a global system of inter-connected food-webs.

They then subjected the virtual Earths to extreme trajectories of environmental change, consisting in either a "global warming", i.e. a linear, monotonic increase in temperature, or a "nuclear winter", i.e. a progressive cooling, such as that which could follow multiple nuclear detonations or an asteroid impact.

They then tracked the loss of species diversity within two separate scenarios up to complete life annihilation.

In the first scenario, they only accounted for the extinction of a species when the temperature became too high or too low for that species to tolerate.

In the second scenario, starting from the extinctions triggered by the mismatch between local temperature and species tolerance limits, they also simulated co-extinction cascades.

By comparing the two scenarios, the scientists were able to provide a quantitative estimate of the relative importance of co-extinctions in planetary biodiversity loss.

They found that failing to account for interdependencies between species led to underestimation of the magnitude of mass extinctions triggered by climate change by up to 10 times.

Giovanni reflects that "conservationists and decision makers need to move fast beyond a species-specific approach, and look with increasing attention at species interaction networks as a fundamental conservation target. Whenever a species leaves our planet, we lose much more than a name on a list".

Global Warming: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C confirms the utmost urgency to act

The study also explored the worst possible scenario of temperature change due to global warming.

According to the simulations, 5-6°C of warming would be enough to wipe out most life on the virtual Earths the scientists created.

Giovanni recognises that "there are obvious limitations in our ambitious model, due to the multiple challenges of building realistic global ecological systems.

On the one hand, our results are consistent with real-world patterns for which we have empirical evidence.

This make us confident that the many assumptions we had to take in order to build a functional model are sound. On the other hand, however, it would be misleading to just focus on raw numbers."

What is clear is that a warming Earth will put increasing pressure on the planet's biodiversity, and co-extinctions will add to that impact.

While it is unlikely that the Earth will become 5-6°C warmer in the near future, it is quite likely that global temperatures will continue to increase.