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Megathrust earthquake: Ticking time bomb threatening Bangladesh

A MASSIVE earthquake called an “active megathrust fault” is posing a genuine threat to southern Asia.

And if the modelling is correct, this earthquake could be at least as devastating as the 2011 quake which devastated Japan and took 16,000 lives.

The discovery of the hidden geographic fault lurking under southern Asia could unleash a magnitude 9.0 quake, placing up to 140 million people at risk in the most densely-populated place on earth, researchers fear.

The study of the area took more than a decade and detected the massive fault beneath Bangladesh, parts of India and Myanmar.

The research, the first to use GPS data collected from Bangladeshi tracking stations, suggests the northeastern corner of the Indian subcontinent is on a collision course with Asia.

The tectonic plates far beneath the earth’s surface are covered in layers of sediment more than 20m thick, and the study models suggest at the upper levels they are stuck in a pile-up, one thrusting under the other in a ‘megathrust’ which may have been under stress for more than 400 years.

Potential quake zone. Solid red line indicates an area of about 62,000 square kilometres that could move during a subduction-zone earthquake, affecting 140 million people or more. Image: Chris Small/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

Potential quake zone. Solid red line indicates an area of about 62,000 square kilometres that could move during a subduction-zone earthquake, affecting 140 million people or more. Image: Chris Small/Lamont-Doherty Earth ObservatorySource:Supplied

Researchers believe the area is spring-loaded to buckle and rupture under the strain. But because their discovery is relatively recent, they have no idea when, or if, the fault will give way and trigger a 8.2 to 9.0 megaquake.

“We don’t know if it’s tomorrow or if it’s not going to be for another 500 years,” study co-author Michael Steckler, a geophysicist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University in New York City said in an article on the university website.

“We don’t know how long it will take to build up steam, because we don’t know how long it was since the last one. But we can definitely see it building.”

 
The research team estimates 140 million people live within 100km of the fault, including about 17 million in the area around low-lying Dhaka region of Bangladesh, which Steckler says already has problems with poor construction, making it hugely at risk of building collapse should a quake of large magnitude hit the region.

Overcrowding would make it difficult to rescue survivors in the event of an earthquake.

“Right now, the streets are clogged with traffic such that it’s impossible to drive around Dhaka on a normal day,” Steckler said. “If you fill the streets with debris, it’s really going to be impossible to get supplies and rescue equipment and things like that around,” Steckler told Live Science.

The research team is now building a more detailed map of the shape of the fault, as well as looking at historical tsunami data to understand how often megathrust earthquakes occur, Steckler said.

Japan tsunami hits Sendai

The March 11, 2011 Japan earthquake, with a magnitude of 9.0 struck off Japan’s northeastern shore and was the most powerful to ever hit the island country.

The quake triggered a devastating tsunami which struck the area with waves of up to 40m, tearing apart villages and towns, flattening homes and carrying ships inland, before sucking back to out to sea carrying debris, vehicles and bodies in its wake.

Damage to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant completed a deadly treble of disaster, contaminating an area which continues to see more than 100,000 displaced locals living as evacuees.

Legarda: Disaster preparedness must be a way of life

MABALACAT CITY --- In observance of the National Disaster Consciousness Month, Senator Loren Legarda has renewed her call to make disaster prevention and preparedness a way of life.

“When we reduce disaster risks and we are all prepared, informed and equipped, natural hazards like typhoons, earthquakes, tsunamis, storm surges, will not turn into disasters,” said Legarda, UNISDR Champion for Global Resilience.

“For instance, a magnitude 7.2 earthquake will not cause deaths or damage if there are no buildings on the fault line or if buildings and structures are built to withstand such a strong earthquake. A storm surge will not turn into a disaster if there are no settlements near the coastlines, or if there are enough mangroves to serve as buffer, or if residents are evacuated ahead of time, disaster management agencies give timely advisories and people follow the warnings,” she said.

Legarda stressed that there are many ways to prevent disasters. “We may be vulnerable to natural hazards and the effects of climate change, but we do not have to be helpless. We must be in control, we must be proactive, we must take urgent action.”

The Senator reiterated key lessons from previous disasters, which should guide the country toward strengthening disaster risk reduction and management.

First, we must focus on managing the risks rather than managing disasters. Disaster risk management should not be carried out only right before calamities happen. Local government units (LGUs) should be at the forefront of the planning, preparation and execution of the plans to provide an effective “first line of defense” against disaster risks. Funds should be sufficiently allocated. Cooperation among local and national governments, businesses, and the communities is imperative.

Second, we must let science work for our communities. The best solutions are possible only with the guidance of science, which is essential to develop land use plans that are risk sensitive. Accurate scientific data is needed to design practical solutions and communicate the risks to the people because knowing when, where and in what magnitude a typhoon will strike is fundamental to keeping our people prepared.

Third, everyone should be disaster-literate. We need to know and understand the risks. Everybody should be part of the solution and action needs to come from the communities themselves. Early and mandatory evacuation would be useless if the people do not understand the need for such efforts. Raising public awareness should be made to resonate loudly and as far deep into the communities as possible.

Fourth, we must protect our environment and pursue green urban development. We need to go back to the basics: protect our ecosystems and natural buffers such as mangrove forests to mitigate floods, storm surges and other hazards. Design and enforce building standards to address future hazards, not past ones.

Fifth, prepare adequately and engage. While disaster prevention should be the greater focus of our efforts, response preparedness is likewise important to prevent further casualties and reduce losses. Contingency plans are crucial in times of disasters. LGUs must have the political will to implement forced evacuation when called for.

Legarda has been engaged in efforts to raise awareness and educate government agencies, private sector, and citizens on disaster prevention and preparedness.

In 2011, the Senator collaborated with various government agencies to produce the Disaster Preparedness and First Aid Handbook, a practical manual that educates citizens on how to prepare for and respond to both natural and human-induced hazards.

An audio-visual version of the book was launched in 2013.

“Ligtas”, an instructional video on disaster preparedness, was produced by Legarda and directed by multi-awarded Kapampangan Indie film director Brillante Mendoza.

source: sunstar.com

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